Africa rarely gets this much notice before a climate shock. Forecasting centres worldwide agree that a powerful El Niño is under way in the Pacific Ocean and will persist until at least February 2027. FEWS NET, citing September forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center, reports a greater than 90 percent probability of a very strong event, with all 22 models in the ensemble showing sea temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region at or above 2 °C warmer than normal from September–November 2026 through the following winter.
The World Meteorological Organization has gone further, putting the chance of El Niño conditions at effectively 100 percent. Researchers at the Institute for Security Studies argue that the real question is no longer whether the event will happen, but whether African governments will use the warning time wisely.
What El Niño does to African weather
El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific that reshapes atmospheric circulation across the globe. Its effects in Africa vary sharply by region. Southern Africa and parts of West Africa typically see below-average rainfall, the eastern Horn often receives heavy rains and floods, and North Africa experiences more erratic precipitation. Because the planet is already warmer than at any time in recorded history, each of those impacts is likely to be amplified.
The African Union's continental climate outlook forum, held in Lusaka in June, warned that this year's event is among the strongest in decades and is already driving severe dryness in the Sahel alongside floods in coastal and equatorial zones.
The Sahel's rainy season ends short
FEWS NET's latest West Africa seasonal monitor paints a worrying picture for the end of the 2026 rains. Cumulative deficits stretch from Mauritania to Chad. Dry spells longer than 11 consecutive days were recorded in Senegal, Mauritania and Mali between late August and late September, exactly when crops needed moisture most.
The millet water requirement index fell below 90 percent of average across the northern Sahel, with values under 50 percent in parts of central Mauritania, central Mali, western Niger and northern Chad.
For farmers who depend on a single rainy season, that statistic translates directly into smaller harvests and higher food prices. Pastoralists face shrinking pasture and water points, which can push herds south earlier than usual and increase the risk of conflict with crop farmers over land.
Temperatures add to the stress. Average maximum temperatures were forecast above 38 °C across much of the Sahel in the first half of October, while NOAA's hazard outlook flagged abnormal heat in the eastern Sahel and parts of East Africa.
Floods in the east, dryness in the south
The NOAA outlook for October 8 to 14 highlighted high flood risks in far-western West Africa, Morocco and southern Ethiopia, along with persistent inundation of South Sudan's Sudd wetlands. At the same time, large 90-day rainfall deficits have caused abnormal dryness across Chad and much of Eastern Africa, with drought-damaged vegetation in western Sudan, South Sudan, northern Uganda and parts of Ethiopia.
Southern Africa has painful memories of the 2015–2016 El Niño, which contributed to a multi-year dry sequence that helped bring Cape Town close to its feared Day Zero water crisis. Zambia and Zimbabwe also suffered hydropower shortfalls as reservoirs on the Zambezi fell. A repeat would hit electricity supplies as well as crops.
Beyond weather: health, water and security
The ISS analysis stresses that El Niño impacts cascade well beyond rainfall charts. Drought reduces water for households, farms, livestock and power generation, sharpening competition around boreholes and rivers. Flooding damages water infrastructure, contaminates drinking supplies and raises the risk of cholera and other waterborne diseases. Heat stress threatens outdoor workers, the elderly and young children.
Where those pressures meet poverty, rising food costs, displacement and weak infrastructure, broader human security problems can follow. Previous El Niño cycles affected the health and nutrition of more than 60 million people worldwide.
What anticipatory action looks like
The good news is that the toolkit for early action is well understood. Governments and aid agencies can pre-position food and medical supplies, release cash transfers before harvests fail, distribute drought-tolerant seed, vaccinate livestock and clear drainage channels ahead of floods. Utilities can plan for reduced hydropower by securing alternative generation early. Insurance schemes linked to rainfall data can pay out quickly when thresholds are crossed.
The African Union held an extraordinary technical committee meeting in late July to coordinate preparations and link them with Africa's negotiating priorities at COP31 and COP32. The challenge, as ever, is turning plans into funded operations at district and village level before the worst impacts arrive.
The window is closing
El Niño is expected to peak between November and January. Every week of preparation now reduces the cost of response later, both in money and in lives. Africa has the forecasts. What it needs in the coming months is the political will and the financing to act on them.